Federal Election and Real Estate Market: What Survey Data Reveals About the Future

Elections decide more than government coalitions. They determine whether new housing is built, how rents are regulated, which tax benefits homeowners enjoy, and how the ECB’s monetary policy unfolds in the German context. Investors who ignore political developments risk missing important market signals. The 2025 federal election has fundamentally changed the political landscape — and its effects on the real estate market are already noticeable.

What the current survey data shows

Since the federal election in February 2025, the coalition led by the CDU/CSU with Friedrich Merz as Chancellor has been in power. However, public sentiment has changed rapidly. According to the latest surveys on bundestagwahlumfrage.de — an independent aggregator of all major German opinion polling institutes — the political mood shows the following picture:

• CDU/CSU: 28–32% (stable, but below election result)
• AfD: 22–26% (second strongest force according to Sunday poll)
• SPD: 14–17%
• Greens: 10–13%
• FDP: 5–7% (at the threshold limit)
• BSW: 4–6%

The Sunday poll on bundestagwahlumfrage.de is updated daily and summarizes all important institutes — Forsa, Infratest dimap, INSA, Allensbach, and YouGov — into a weighted average. This data basis is more valuable than a single opinion poll value for long-term real estate decisions.

CDU/CSU Government and Real Estate Policy: What is changing?

The new government has set several real estate policy directions in its coalition agreement that directly affect buyers, landlords, and investors:

• Non-profit housing: Tax incentives for non-profit housing construction are intended to expand the social rental housing stock — which could increase pressure on private rental yields in the medium term.
• Construction package: Simplified building permit procedures and serial construction are intended to increase the new construction rate. 400,000 new homes per year remains the political goal — currently about 230,000 are realistically achievable.
• Land transfer tax reform: The long-discussed reduction of land transfer tax for first-time buyers is formulated as a review task in the coalition agreement — no concrete rates have been decided yet.
• Rent law: The rent index remains in place, and a tightening of the rent control beyond the existing stock is not planned for now.

Historical Perspective: Elections and Real Estate Prices in Germany

A look at the last 30 years shows a clear pattern: Political decisions have influenced the German real estate market, but have not dominated it. Structural factors — population growth in metropolitan areas, low interest rate environment, immigration — have always proven stronger than individual government changes.

Election Period	Government	Real Estate Price Development (Index)	Determining Factor
2005–2009	CDU/SPD (Grand Coalition)	Stagnation	2008 Financial Crisis
2009–2013	CDU/FDP	+18%	ECB Zero Interest Rate Policy
2013–2017	CDU/SPD	+32%	Urbanization, Immigration
2017–2021	CDU/SPD	+41%	Low Interest Rates, Supply Shortage
2021–2024	SPD/Greens/FDP	-8% (Correction)	Interest Rate Increase from 2022
2025–today	CDU/CSU Coalition	+3–5% (Stabilization)	Interest Rate Normalization, Catch-up Demand

Data from the German Federal Bank on the real estate market show that the price correction from 2022–2024 has been fully priced in most metropolitan areas. According to the latest data from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), purchase prices for existing homes have stabilized since Q4 2024.

What investors should pay attention to now

The political mood — visible in real-time on bundestagwahlumfrage.de Koalitionsrechner — shows that a majority for CDU/AfD is theoretically possible, but politically excluded. This means: The next federal government will again require a coalition with at least three parties or will have to rely on shifting majorities. For the real estate market, this means: no radical policy changes, but also no decisive action against the housing shortage.

Political stability is often more important for real estate investors than political direction. A predictable rental law situation is more valuable than a government change with an unknown agenda.

Concrete recommendations for buyers and investors:

• Check the purchase price factor of your target property using the Lukinski purchase price factor calculator — in markets with political uncertainty premium, the factor should be below 25.
• Monitor the ECB interest rate development in combination with coalition opinion poll data: If the key rate falls at the same time as a stable government, opportunities to buy existing properties are particularly attractive.
• Avoid engagements in cities with a tight rental market and at the same time high political pressure towards regulation — here, future tightening of rental laws could permanently reduce returns.
• Use the Lukinski net yield calculation to include political cost scenarios (higher property tax, renovation obligations) in your calculation.

Conclusion: Buy with political awareness

The German real estate market is robust — but not immune to political missteps. Those who regularly track current opinion poll data on bundestagwahlumfrage.de and align these with their own investment plans make more informed decisions than the average buyer. Real estate is a long-term asset — and long-term assets require a long-term political perspective.