What the current survey data shows

Since the federal election in February 2025, the coalition led by the CDU/CSU with Friedrich Merz as Chancellor has been in power. However, public sentiment has changed rapidly. According to the latest surveys on bundestagwahlumfrage.de — an independent aggregator of all major German opinion polling institutes — the political mood shows the following picture:

• CDU/CSU: 28–32% (stable, but below election result)
• AfD: 22–26% (second strongest force according to Sunday poll)
• SPD: 14–17%
• Greens: 10–13%
• FDP: 5–7% (at the threshold limit)
• BSW: 4–6%

The Sunday poll on bundestagwahlumfrage.de is updated daily and summarizes all important institutes — Forsa, Infratest dimap, INSA, Allensbach, and YouGov — into a weighted average. This data basis is more valuable than a single opinion poll value for long-term real estate decisions.

CDU/CSU Government and Real Estate Policy: What is changing?

The new government has set several real estate policy directions in its coalition agreement that directly affect buyers, landlords, and investors:

• Non-profit housing: Tax incentives for non-profit housing construction are intended to expand the social rental housing stock — which could increase pressure on private rental yields in the medium term.
• Construction package: Simplified building permit procedures and serial construction are intended to increase the new construction rate. 400,000 new homes per year remains the political goal — currently about 230,000 are realistically achievable.
• Land transfer tax reform: The long-discussed reduction of land transfer tax for first-time buyers is formulated as a review task in the coalition agreement — no concrete rates have been decided yet.
• Rent law: The rent index remains in place, and a tightening of the rent control beyond the existing stock is not planned for now.

Historical Perspective: Elections and Real Estate Prices in Germany

A look at the last 30 years shows a clear pattern: Political decisions have influenced the German real estate market, but have not dominated it. Structural factors — population growth in metropolitan areas, low interest rate environment, immigration — have always proven stronger than individual government changes.

Data from the German Federal Bank on the real estate market show that the price correction from 2022–2024 has been fully priced in most metropolitan areas. According to the latest data from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), purchase prices for existing homes have stabilized since Q4 2024.

What investors should pay attention to now

The political mood — visible in real-time on bundestagwahlumfrage.de Koalitionsrechner — shows that a majority for CDU/AfD is theoretically possible, but politically excluded. This means: The next federal government will again require a coalition with at least three parties or will have to rely on shifting majorities. For the real estate market, this means: no radical policy changes, but also no decisive action against the housing shortage.

Political stability is often more important for real estate investors than political direction. A predictable rental law situation is more valuable than a government change with an unknown agenda.

Concrete recommendations for buyers and investors:

• Check the purchase price factor of your target property using the Lukinski purchase price factor calculator — in markets with political uncertainty premium, the factor should be below 25.
• Monitor the ECB interest rate development in combination with coalition opinion poll data: If the key rate falls at the same time as a stable government, opportunities to buy existing properties are particularly attractive.
• Avoid engagements in cities with a tight rental market and at the same time high political pressure towards regulation — here, future tightening of rental laws could permanently reduce returns.
• Use the Lukinski net yield calculation to include political cost scenarios (higher property tax, renovation obligations) in your calculation.

Conclusion: Buy with political awareness

The German real estate market is robust — but not immune to political missteps. Those who regularly track current opinion poll data on bundestagwahlumfrage.de and align these with their own investment plans make more informed decisions than the average buyer. Real estate is a long-term asset — and long-term assets require a long-term political perspective.

Sunday Question: Six Institutes, Six Results

The Sunday question is collected by several institutes that differ in methodology, sampling, and weighting. Anyone using polls as an investment signal must know their peculiarities.

Overview of the Most Important Institutes

• Infratest dimap (ARD DeutschlandTrend): about 1,250 people, by telephone and online, weekly.
• Forsa (RTL/n-tv): rolling approximately 2,500 people per week – the largest sample, thus lower fluctuations.
• Research Group Elections (ZDF Politbarometer): exclusively telephone interviews, considered methodologically conservative.
• INSA (BILD): online-based, separately evaluates non-voters, frequent survey.
• Allensbach (FAZ): personal interviews, longest field time, considered a late indicator.
• GMS (Sat.1/ProSieben): smaller sample, lower media reach.

Methodological Differences and Bias

Results vary by institute by 2 to 4 percentage points. Historically, Forsa is said to have a slight tendency towards SPD, INSA an overstatement of the margins (FDP, AfD), Allensbach a conservative weighting in favor of the Union. That is exactly why the weighted average of all institutes is more informative than any single value. The portal Bundestagwahlumfrage.de aggregates all institutes on one page with historical trend charts. As a long-term reference, Wahlrecht.de documents survey data for over two and a half decades.

Coalition Calculator: From Polls to Government

Individual percentage values say little about actual government formation. What matters is the seat distribution in the Bundestag, which differs from the pure second vote share due to overhang and compensatory mandates. The Coalition Calculator on Bundestagwahlumfrage.de simulates this distribution and shows which party combinations can achieve a majority.

What Coalition Means for Real Estate?

• Grand Coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD): Compromise line. Moderate changes to rental laws, while simultaneously providing investment incentives such as special depreciation allowances. Historically the “status quo plus”.
• Black-Green: Strict energy efficiency renovation obligations, ambitious climate protection requirements for existing buildings, but reduced bureaucracy in new construction.
• Black-Red-Green (Kenia): Maximum regulatory density – renovation plus rent regulation plus possible discussion on wealth tax.
• Union-led with FDP: Slows regulatory interventions, promotes homeownership, discusses land transfer tax exemption.
• Left Coalition: Strictest rent regulation, discussion of a federal rent cap, debates on socialization.

What the Parties Plan for the Real Estate Market

Those who read Sunday questions as early indicators must know the programs. The following overview shows the core positions of the Bundestag parties on the four most important investment topics:

Rent control: How politics has changed the rental market

The rent control is the prime example of how a federal election has direct effects on real estate returns. More background: Rent control explained.

Development stages

• Introduction under first Merkel Grand Coalition: When reletting, the rent may be at most 10 percent above the local comparative rent. Applies only in areas with a tight housing market, determined by state regulations.
• First tightening (second Grand Coalition): Landlords must provide information about previous rents without being asked. Tenants can claim overpaid rent retroactively (previously only after a complaint).
• Berlin rent cap: Red-Red-Green freezes rents throughout the state. The Federal Constitutional Court overturns the law due to lack of state competence – rental law is exclusively federal law.
• Current negotiations: Discussions are underway to reduce the capping limit from 10 to 6 percent, expand to short-term rentals, and apply nationwide.

Concrete impact on returns

In cities with active rent control (Berlin, Munich, Hamburg, Frankfurt, Cologne, Stuttgart, Düsseldorf), achievable rents on new leases are 5 to 20 percent below the free market value, depending on the micro-location. This reduces the gross rental yield by 0.3 to 0.8 percentage points. For an 80-square-meter apartment in Munich with a local comparative rent of 18 euros per square meter, the 10 percent cap means a maximum of 19.80 euros instead of a potential 24 euros – that is, about 4,000 euros in lost annual rent.

Land transfer tax: 16 federal states, 16 different rates

The land transfer tax is the largest ancillary cost when buying real estate and is determined at the state level. Detailed calculator: Calculate land transfer tax.

Current rates and tax burden

With a 1 million euro investment in Düsseldorf, the buyer pays 30,000 euros more in land transfer tax than in Munich – money that directly disappears from the equity return.

Exemption discussion at the federal level

Exemptions between 50,000 and 250,000 euros per first-time buyer are being discussed. CDU/CSU and FDP actively support the model, while SPD and Greens prioritize social housing instead. Depending on the coalition, an exemption could be introduced that would boost demand in the first-time buyer segment by an estimated 10 to 15 percent.

Renovation obligation and GEG: The underestimated election issue

For existing property owners, the Building Energy Act is often more decisive than rent control. A coalition with the Greens tends to tighten it, while a government led by the Union tends to loosen it.

Cost framework for energy renovation

• Heating system replacement (heat pump): 25,000 to 45,000 euros per single-family home, depending on insulation standard
• Facade insulation: 150 to 250 euros per square meter of facade area
• Window replacement (triple-glazed): 800 to 1,200 euros per window including installation
• Roof insulation: 100 to 200 euros per square meter of roof area
• Full renovation of multi-family house: 600 to 1,200 euros per square meter of living space

For a multi-family house with 800 square meters, a mandatory full renovation quickly amounts to 500,000 to 900,000 euros. Those who fully utilize the 8 percent modernization levy can only partially refinance it – the effective equity commitment is significant. More information under energy-efficient renovation.

Depreciation and speculation period: Two levers in tax law

What is often mentioned between the lines in election programs regarding investment issues has a massive impact on returns.

Depreciation (AfA) as a lever

• Linear depreciation for rental properties: currently 3 percent for new buildings, 2 percent for existing buildings
• Special depreciation for new rental housing: an additional 5 percent in the first four years – introduced and withdrawn multiple times under different coalitions
• Monument depreciation: up to 9 percent over 8 years, then 7 percent over 4 years – politically barely touched

Deeper overview: Depreciation for real estate.

Speculation period – the underestimated threat

Currently: After 10 years of holding period, the capital gain from the sale is tax-free. SPD and the Greens have repeatedly discussed extending it to 15 years or implementing a general taxation. For an apartment with a value increase of 200,000 euros, this would mean between 60,000 and 90,000 euros in taxes depending on the individual tax rate – money that is currently realizable tax-free.

Bond Markets: The Fastest Transmission Channel

Before any law is passed, bond markets react to surveys. If a constellation perceived as politically risky in the Sunday poll rises, the yield on 10-year German government bonds increases. Since construction loan interest rates are linked to the government bond yield through mortgage bonds, this effect passes through to mortgage conditions within days.

Interest Rate Reaction Example

A shift in the government bond yield of 30 basis points (0.3 percentage points) means for an annuity loan of 500,000 euros with 10 years of interest rate fixation: about 1,500 euros more in annual costs, totaling 15,000 euros over the interest rate fixation period. That is exactly why institutional investors observe the Sunday poll as meticulously as stock prices.

Political Levels: Where Politics Meets Real Estate

Real estate markets are regulated on four political levels – each with its own electoral mechanism.

Local Level

Zoning plans, building permits, protected neighborhoods (social preservation regulations), municipal pre-emption rights. In areas such as Berlin-Kreuzberg or Hamburg-Altona, protected neighborhoods can effectively block the sale of owner-occupied apartments – the municipality can exercise its pre-emption right and buy at market value.

Constituency Level

The 299 constituencies determine the direct mandates in the Bundestag. In constituencies with a high proportion of renters (large cities, often over 80 percent renters), candidates who support stricter rent regulations tend to win. In rural constituencies with ownership shares of up to over 70 percent, property promotion and new construction are in the foreground.

State Level

Building codes, land transfer tax, rent control regulations, restrictions on the use of property for other purposes, caps on rent increases. State election surveys show which political changes are likely in

Entry into capital investment real estate: 4 basics

Real estate acquisition: how to find cheap real estate, houses and apartments?

Finding the right property is the first step on the road to a successful investment. To find affordable properties, you should rely on various resources. Real estate portals on the Internet, real estate agents, auctions and even personal contacts can help you discover suitable offers. Be sure to check different locations and types of properties to have a wide range of options.

• Use personal contacts and networks
• Neighborhood
• B2B contacts (brokers, administrators, craftsmen, …)
• Direct approach to owners

Real estate yield: what is yield and how do you calculate it?

The yield is a decisive factor for your investment. It indicates how much profit you will make from your property. To calculate the return, divide the annual net rental income by the purchase price of the property and multiply the result by 100 to express the return as a percentage. A good return depends on several factors, such as the property’s location, rental rates and operating costs. As a rule of thumb, a return of 5% or more is considered acceptable.

• Yield measures the profit of your real estate investment
• Calculation: (Annual net rental income / purchase price of the property) x 100
• Factors for good returns: location, rents, operating costs
• Target: Return of 5% or more

Financing: equity and repayment plan

Most real estate investors require financing, and equity is critical here. It is usually recommended to raise at least 20% of the purchase price as equity in order to obtain more favorable loan terms and minimize risk. The financing itself consists of interest and repayment. A repayment plan will help you organize the repayment of the loan and ensure that you remain financially sound in the long term.

• Recommended equity: at least 20% of the purchase price
• Financing consists of interest and repayment
• Create a repayment plan for structured repayment of the loan
• Look for favorable credit conditions

Property management: letting, avoiding vacancies and maintenance reserves

After the purchase of your property comes the phase of management. This is about finding tenants, avoiding vacancies and keeping the property in good condition. You can rent it out yourself or leave the management to a professional property management company. Make sure to set up a maintenance reserve to be able to finance unexpected repairs and renovations.

• Finding tenants and avoiding vacancies
• Choice between self-management and property management company
• Establishment of a maintenance reserve for repairs and renovations
• Long-term care of the property for value retention

Favorable real estate, yield, financing and renting

Investing in real estate can be a profitable and long-term stable way to increase your capital. With the above tips, you can lay the groundwork for successful real estate investment as a beginner. However, it is important to note that real estate investing comes with risks, and it is advisable to do thorough research before investing and seek professional advice if necessary. However, with the right preparation and a clear plan, you can make great progress on the road to financial independence and security.

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Lukinski YouTube: Yield, Capital Investment & Co.

Discover with me the crucial factors, key figures and basics of real estate investment. Compared to other forms of investment, real estate offers a ‘safer’ way to invest capital with consistent returns and long-term appreciation. Want to invest your money wisely? My recommendation: Real estate, passive income and a good life.

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